Facing California's Water Future
Will There Be Water Tomorrow?

The year is 2020. Mandatory rationing is commonplace. Rock gardens have replaced lawns; plants and trees are rare. Swimming pools are banned, and sprinklers sit idle. Water is now a priceless commodity.

So costly that houses are priced beyond the pocketbook of the average resident. Businesses are charging more for their products and services. And apples are selling for a $1 each...on sale.

This may seem too bleak an outlook for California's future, but it may not be too far off the mark, if the Department's forecasts are accurate in predicting shortages that await the public within the next two decades.

The Latest Water Update
In January 1998, DWR released a draft of Bulletin 160-98, part of a series of updates published every five years. Mandated by the Legislature in 1956 as part of the Department's responsibilities, Bulletin 160 evaluates California's urban, agricultural, and environmental water needs; assesses water supplies available to meet those needs; and recommends options that may counter shortages forecasteds for the future. This report looks at the state's water budgets for the years 1995 and 2020.

To evaluate water supplies versus water needs in the selected years, Bulletin 160-98 examines each year's level of development. For example, the report evaluates how 1995's water supply (including surface, groundwater, recycled and desalted) will meet or fall short of that year's demands under average and drought years. Conditions and events that would reduce or increase supply or demand are assessed, then the amount of predicted shortages are estimated.

The same goes for the year 2020. Using projections that anticipate the outcome of certain water plans and events, approximations of made of average and drought year shortages. Recommendations are made to meet future needs.

Out of two thick volumes of research and calculations come these stark conclusions:

• Under drought year conditions, the state's 1995 shortage is 5.2 million acre-feet, while an average water year shortage is 1.6 maf.

• If no action is taken to improve the reliability of the state's water supply, by 2020 Californians will be short 5.2 maf during a drought and 2.9 maf in an average year.

However there is still hope that these shortages can be reduced — that is, only if a truce is declared in California's water wars.

Shortages and Solutions
By 2020, the Department of Finance forecasts that California's present population of over 32 million people will grow to 47.5 million. This amount is roughly equivalent to the total number of the people living in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah.

Water shortages will vary for each of the state's ten major hydrologic regions. Those regions with more money and prepared plans, and less dependence on imported water supplies will fare better. Overall such deficits will inevitably impact California's economy and could endanger public health and safety. With not much water available for the environment, habitats will suffer, as will the fish and wildlife that depend on them.

"The magnitude of potential shortages, especially drought year shortages, demonstrates the urgency of taking action," Bulletin 160-98 states. "The do-nothing alternative is not an alternative that will meet the needs of 47.5 million Californians in 2020."

In the next two decades, water demands will increase about one and a half times for the urban sector (homes, government, and businesses). A healthy environment will need one million acre-feet more. And farmers will reduce their requirements by little more than 2 maf.

Many of the solutions to reduce the shortages require action by the state's water purveyors, the local agencies that provide about 70 percent of California's developed water.

"If water purveyors statewide—at all levels of government—implement actions likely to be taken by 2020, forecasted water shortages would be reduced, but not eliminated," the bulletin reports.

With improvements made by 2020, water shortages could diminish by 1.3 maf during droughts and 0.2 maf in average years.

However, such measures will be costly and require many and varied water management approaches. "There is not one magic bullet" that will solve the water dilemma, according to the 1998 update. All options must be considered. Among them, Bulletin 160-98 mentions CALFED's efforts to fix the Delta and develop new water supplies, urban and agricultural water conservation, the implementation of California's 4.4 Plan to reduce its use of the Colorado river water, increased use of water transfers and exchanges, projects to improve State Water Project water supply reliability, DWR's drought water bank, land retirement on the westside of San Joaquin Valley, and two new multipurpose reservoirs.

A Truce in the Water Wars
All of these potential actions will amount to nothing without cooperation among the warring factions of the state's water wars. Until the Bay-Delta Accord was signed in 1994, urban, agricultural and environmental sectors blamed each other for shortages, water quality problems, and environmental damages. Each focused on its own needs, seeking to increase their portion of available water resources.

To face the future with productive results, all of the state's water using sectors must work together and respect the needs of others as legitimate. The bulletin calls for those involved to continue the "new spirit" created by the Bay-Delta Accord "of fostering cooperation and consensus rather than competition and conflict.

"Such an approach will be increasingly necessary, given the magnitude of the water shortages facing California. Mutual accommodation of each others' needs is especially important in drought years, when water purveyors face the greatest water supply challenges."

Ending on a positive note, Bulletin 160-98 concludes, "With continued efforts to prepare for the future, California can have safe and reliable water supplies for urban areas, adequate long-term water supplies to maintain the state's agricultural economy, and restoration and protection of fish and wildlife habitat."

With public review of Bulletin 160-98 completed during February and March, a final version will be published in late 1998.